According to Rugby Vision, a well-tested algorithm developed to predict outcomes for major rugby competitions, New Zealand has a 33.5% chance of winning their fourth RWC title. The next most likely champions are South Africa (26.2%), followed by France (20.6%) and Ireland (11.9%).
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The Rugby Vision model uses three key components:
- A rating system for international teams.
- Estimation of expected outcomes for each World Cup game using those ratings.
- 10,000 simulations of the tournament to account for uncertainty around expected outcomes.
The model predicts that New Zealand and France will both qualify for the quarterfinals from Pool A, with South Africa and Ireland the likely quarter finalists from Pool B. Australia and Wales are the most likely teams to progress from Pool C, while England and Argentina are favourites to make the quarterfinals from Pool D.
In the semifinals, teams from Pools A and B are heavily favoured to win, with New Zealand and South Africa the most likely finalists.
The Rugby Vision model suggests that the draw makes it easier for Pool C and D teams to qualify for the semifinals, but these teams are all but guaranteed to play strong semifinal opponents. In short, the draw helps Pool C and D teams go deeper into the tournament, but does not increase their chances of winning.
Here is a summary of the model’s predictions for each team:
- New Zealand: 33.5% chance of winning the tournament
- South Africa: 26.2% chance of winning the tournament
- France: 20.6% chance of winning the tournament
- Ireland: 11.9% chance of winning the tournament
- England: 9.7% chance of winning the tournament
- Australia: 7.8% chance of winning the tournament
- Wales: 6.2% chance of winning the tournament
- Argentina: 5.1% chance of winning the tournament
- Scotland: 3.4% chance of winning the tournament
- Fiji: 2.4% chance of winning the tournament
- Japan: 1.7% chance of winning the tournament
- Samoa: 1.1% chance of winning the tournament
The Rugby Vision model is well calibrated and has been shown to be accurate in predicting the outcome of previous World Cups. However, it is important to remember that it is just a model and that the actual outcome of the tournament could be different.
